The Chara Hit on Pacioretty

I'm sure you have all heard the news about Zdeno Chara's hit on young Montreal Canadiens forward Max Pacioretty, which caused the latter a severe concussion and a non-displaced fracture of the fourth cerebral vertebra in his neck.


The good news is that Pacioretty was released from the hospital as of Friday March 11th, therefore we can conclude the injury is not life-threatening.  One can only hope he recovers quickly and fully; all of my best wishes go out to Max.


Still, the hit has caused a veritable buzz of controversy in the hockey world.  Especially so because the league ruled Chara's hit was "a hockey play" and elected not to suspend the towering defenseman.  This really ruffled Canadiens owner Geoff Molson's feathers, as he sent out a strongly-worded letter to his fans in which he called out the NHL's lack of discipline and preventative measures.  Air Canada, a big sponsor of the NHL, sent out a letter to the league threatening to revoke its sponsorship if the league does not better police its sport to limit career threatening and life endangering head injuries.  Even crazier, the Montreal police started a criminal investigation on Chara.   


Are Mr. Molson's and Air Canada's claims substantiated by evidence?  Are head injuries truly that high in the NHL?  I did some digging to find out.


The league has been tracking concussions since 1997 and says there are usually about 75 reported each season.  That number is absurdly high; there is no reason why an average of 75 players per season should be getting concussed.  The league can, and should step up its protection of players' health.

The NHL tried to do just that when it implemented a new rule this season against hits to the head.  The exact rule is:

"Illegal checks to the head, defined as 'a lateral or blind side hit to an opponent where the head is targeted and/or the principle point of contact is not permitted,' will now be subject to a five-minute major penalty and automatic game misconduct, as well as possible supplemental discipline if deemed appropriate by the League."       

How effective has this rule been?  Well, according to The Concussion Blog, there have been 72 concussions in the NHL so far this season.  With a month to go in the season, this season is on pace for more concussions than the average of 75 for the past 13 years.  Clearly, while this rule is a step in the right direction, it is not enough.


The game has gotten faster and its players have gotten bigger and stronger.  The NHL needs to implement new regulations to prevent these devastating head injuries.  Hopefully the hit Chara threw on Pacioretty can serve as the catalyst for this process.

Western Conference Logjam

Just to illustrate my previous point about how tight the Western Conference is right now: the Dallas Stars moved from eighth to fourth with their win tonight over the Minnesota Wild.  Four places.  In one win.

I rest my case.

New Blog Direction

Hey guys,

Thanks for following my blog so far and I'm glad you all seem to like what I've been posting. Unfortunately, my schedule is about to get really hectic, and I doubt I can do daily picks posts any longer.  I finish with a 24-15 overall record for my picks.  Hopefully once my schedule clears up a little, I can resume making picks.

My schedule coupled with my desire to do more analysis (and occasional hockey rants) have led me to the decision that I shall be taking this blog in a new direction (...change we can believe in?).  I will now mostly be posting analysis, comments, and/or rants about whatever is going on in the hockey world that I find particularly interesting (such as this and this post).

I am really excited about taking my blog in this new direction, and I think you guys will like it just as much as I do.  Feel free to drop a comment and let me know what you guys think about this, I'd love to hear from ya.

Stay tuned for the first post in this new, exciting direction!

03/09/2011 NHL Picks

Last night was the very definition of mediocrity as I went .500.  As an aside, I'd just like to point out the Chicago game was some ridiculously good luck by the Panthers as play and SOG (39-15 in favor of the 'Hawks) were completely and utterly dominated by Chicago.  What can you do though, sometimes all of the bounces go the other way.


Moving on, tonight's matchups are:


Edmonton Oilers (+240) at Washington Capitals (-280):
This is the second game of a back-to-back for the Oilers, the first being a 4-1 loss to the Flyers. The Oilers were inferior in skill to begin with, but now with the loss of number 1 draft pick Taylor Hall and power forward Dustin Penner, expect the Capitals, who are playing their best hockey of the season, to roll right through them.
Pick: Washington Capitals


St. Louis Blues (+115) at Columbus Blue Jackets (-135):
The Blues will get a boost from the return of starting goaltender Jaroslav Halak while the Blue Jackets' starter, Steve Mason, has been doing his best impersonation of swiss cheese allowing 12 goals while going 0-2-2 in his last four starts.  Look for the underdog Blues to sweep this home-and-home series.
Pick: St. Louis Blues


Atlanta Thrashers (+160) at Carolina Hurricanes (-180):
The Thrashers have been struggling of late (3-6-1 in their last 10) and will now be without the services of top scoring defenseman Dustin Byfuglien.  The 'Canes seem to have Atlanta's number as they have won every single one of the four games between these two teams previous to this one.
Pick: Carolina Hurricanes


Chicago Blackhawks (-115) at Tampa Bay Lightning (-105):
The champs are 8-2-0 in their last 10 and are coming off two of their best periods of the year last night where they absolutely dominated play in the second and third periods.  The Lightning, in stark contrast, are playing their worst hockey of the season and have gone 3-4-3 in their last 10.  Plus, the 'Hawks have won their last three games against the Lightning.
Pick: Chicago Blackhawks


Los Angeles Kings (+140) at Detroit Red Wings (-160):
Both teams have been playing mediocre hockey as of late, but expect the Red Wings to start playing the right way as the playoffs approach.  The last time these two teams met (February 28), the Wings routed the Kings in Los Angeles 7-1 before LA got in some reconciliation goals to end it 7-4.
Pick: Detroit Red Wings


Calgary Flames (+110) at Dallas Stars (-130):
The Flames have won all three of these two teams' previous meetings and are playing much better as of late (7-2-1 in last 10) than Dallas (5-4-1 in last 10) as the Stars continue to miss leading scorer Brad Richards.  Go with the underdogs on this one.
Pick: Calgary Flames


New York Rangers (+100) at Anaheim (-120):
The Rangers are fresh off a 7-0 thumping of the Flyers where Ryan Callahan scored 4 goals and Henrik Lundqvist got his league-leading ninth shutout.  Anaheim, on the other hand, is fresh off getting shutout by the Canucks and are clearly missing all-star goalie Joans Hiller and second line pivot Saku Koivu.  Look for another underdog victory here.
Pick: New York Rangers


All money lines are from sportsbook.com unless otherwise indicated.

Who will make the playoffs in the Western Conference?

I recently looked at the Devils' chances of making the playoffs and how the Eastern Conference is projected to finish.  Per the request of a reader, I am now going to take a look at how the West is projected to finish.


The West is a veritable logjam as only 5 points separate fourth place from eleventh place.  You read that right, FIVE points.  That means if you lose a game in the West, you could potentially slide three places and out of the playoff picture.  That is ridiculous.  The NHL wanted parity coming out of the '04-'05 lockout, and they got it.


The question becomes, then, out of these eight bubble teams, which ones make the playoffs? Well, here's who's projected to make the playoffs in the West as of right now:

GR is Games Remaining, PPT is Projected Point Total, PFP is Projected Finishing Place, L10 P% is a team's P% over its last 10 games, L10 PPT is a team's PPT calculated using L10 P%, and L10 PFP is a team's PFP based on its L10 PPT.

If teams were to earn points at the rate they have all season, the teams would finish in the exact order they are in now.  If teams were to earn points at the rate they have for their last 10 games, then the seeding would change, but the 8 teams to make the playoffs remain the same.

Keep in mind, however, that these are projected finishes based on past performance.  Any one team can go on a hot streak and get into the playoffs, or go on a cold streak and drop out of the playoffs.  That's the beauty of hockey, you never know what will happen.  Remember the '09-'10 Flyers?

03/08/2011 Picks

Worst outing so far last night.  When you get a pick wrong in overtime and a pick wrong in the shootout though, you know you were damn close.  Here's to righting the ship tonight.

Tonight's matchups are:

Edmonton Oilers (+230) at Philadelphia Flyers (-270):
Philly will snap its four-game losing streak here against the Oilers as the Flyers are the vastly superior team.
Pick: Philadelphia Flyers


Buffalo Sabres (-105) at Pittsburgh Penguins (-115):
This is a really close matchup, but I'll give the edge to the underdog Sabres as they are playing good hockey, having won their last 2 games.  Furthermore, the Sabres are fighting for a playoff berth while the Crosby and Malkin-less Penguins are reeling with a 3-3-4 record in their last 10 games.
Pick: Buffalo Sabres


Ottawa Senators (+220) at New Jersey Devils (-260):
Ottawa is the worst team in the league and their sale of valuable players at the deadline is not going to help their team this season (although it should help in the long run).  The Devils, on the other hand, are the hottest team in the league by far having gone an absurd 21-2-2 in their last 25 games.
Pick: New Jersey Devils

Toronto Maple Leafs (-115) at New York Islanders (-105):
I am not touching this one as both teams are playing mediocre hockey and the money lines are not appealing for this game.  I'd advise against betting on it.  If you absolutely had to make a pick though, pick the Maple Leafs who have been slightly better in their last 10 games (6-1-3) and are fighting for a playoff spot.
Pick: None

Boston Bruins (-110) at Montreal Canadiens (-110):
The Bruins (7-2-1) and the Canadiens have been pretty hot (6-3-1) throughout their last 10.  The Bruins had a seven-game winning streak before losing in overtime to the Penguins in their last game, while the Canadiens are currently riding a four-game winning streak.  It's going to be close, but I'm going with the Bruins as I believe they are a serious championship contender with their deadline acquisitions.
Pick: Boston Bruins


Chicago Blackhawks (-210) at Florida Panthers (+175):
Chicago is on an eight-game winning streak, and captain Jonathan Toews is on fire.  The Panthers are in the East cellar and are struggling mightily as of late.
Pick: Chicago Blackhawks


Colorado Avalanche (+165) at Minnesota Wild (-190):
Colorado has been playing abysmally, going 1-7-2 over their last 10.  Their main problem is their goaltending, or the lack thereof.  Until that is fixed, they are not going to win many hockey games.  Expect the Wild, who are battling for a playoff berth, to jump at the opportunity to grab two points against a struggling team.
Pick: Minnesota Wild


Vancouver Canucks (-130) at Phoenix Coyotes (+110):
The Canucks are playing well and are sitting at the top of the league.  I think Phoenix will challenge them, but I doubt they come away with the win unless Bryzgalov is huge tonight.
Pick: Vancouver Canucks


Nashville Predators (+165) at San Jose Sharks (-190):
The Sharks are playing their best hockey of the season while the Preds are playing their worst hockey of the season.  They have gone 8-2-0 and 3-5-2 in their last 10 games, respectively.
Pick: San Jose Sharks


All money lines are from sportsbook.com unless otherwise stated.

Can the New Jersey Devils Complete their Historic Push into the Playoffs?

     As I'm sure we have all noticed, the Devils have been the hottest team in the league with a 21-2-2 record over their last 25  games.  That means the Devils have been collecting 88.0% of all their possible points over that span.  Let that number sink in for a moment.  That is absolutely ridiculous.  Just to provide a frame of reference, the Canucks who lead the league in P% have been amassing points at a 69.4% clip.
     New Jersey, if you recall, was in last place in the Eastern Conference for most of the first half of the season.  Now they are 4 spots and 8 points out of a playoff berth.  They only have 17 games left to overcome that deficit.  If they continue to earn points at their current absurd pace of 88.0%, and all other teams in the league continue to earn points according to their season-long P% here's how the Eastern Conference would finish:

GR is Games Remaining, PPT is Projected Point Total, and PFP is Projected Finishing Place

Unfortunately, it looks like the Devils will fall 2 places and ~2.5 points short of a playoff berth if they maintain their blistering P% and every other team earns points at the same rate they have all year.  The bubble teams' remaining strength of schedule should then factor into how strongly each team finishes.

RSOS is Remaining Strength of Schedule, bubble teams are bolded.  Credit to http://www.playoffstatus.com for calculating the remaining strength of schedule.

The Devils have the easiest remaining schedule out of the East bubble teams.  That should certainly help them in securing a playoff spot.  So are the chances of the New Jersey Devils making the playoffs highly unlikely?  Yes.  Impossible?  No.