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Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Who will make the playoffs in the Western Conference?

I recently looked at the Devils' chances of making the playoffs and how the Eastern Conference is projected to finish.  Per the request of a reader, I am now going to take a look at how the West is projected to finish.


The West is a veritable logjam as only 5 points separate fourth place from eleventh place.  You read that right, FIVE points.  That means if you lose a game in the West, you could potentially slide three places and out of the playoff picture.  That is ridiculous.  The NHL wanted parity coming out of the '04-'05 lockout, and they got it.


The question becomes, then, out of these eight bubble teams, which ones make the playoffs? Well, here's who's projected to make the playoffs in the West as of right now:
GR is Games Remaining, PPT is Projected Point Total, PFP is Projected Finishing Place, L10 P% is a team's P% over its last 10 games, L10 PPT is a team's PPT calculated using L10 P%, and L10 PFP is a team's PFP based on its L10 PPT.

If teams were to earn points at the rate they have all season, the teams would finish in the exact order they are in now.  If teams were to earn points at the rate they have for their last 10 games, then the seeding would change, but the 8 teams to make the playoffs remain the same.

Keep in mind, however, that these are projected finishes based on past performance.  Any one team can go on a hot streak and get into the playoffs, or go on a cold streak and drop out of the playoffs.  That's the beauty of hockey, you never know what will happen.  Remember the '09-'10 Flyers?

2 comments:

  1. Thanks for the post! Here's to hoping the (hopefully soon) return of Mikko Koivu will alter these projections.

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  2. No problem! Yea, I hear ya. Who knows though, maybe Theo will put the team on his back (he has been known to do that once in a while).

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